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Worldwide generative AI (GenAI) smartphone shipments are forecast to grow an unprecedented 363.6 per cent year-over-year in 2024 to 234.2 million units.
GenAI smartphones are generally defined as devices featuring a system-on-a-chip (SoC) capable of running on-device GenAI models leveraging a neural processing unit (NPU) with 30 tera operations per second (TOPS) or more performance using the int-8 data type.
GenAI shipments already represent 19 per cent of the overall smartphone market in 2024, according to data from market research firm International Data Corporation (IDC) which presented the findings in its Worldwide Generative AI Smartphone Forecast, 2024–2028: July 2024 report.
That growth is expected to gather momentum over the coming five years as an increasing number of manufacturers from Samsung and Apple to Motorola and Huawei integrate them in their devices.
By 2025, shipments of GenAI smartphones is expected to grow 73.1 per cent year-over-year.
By 2028, IDC forecasts 912 million GenAI smartphone shipments, resulting in a 2024-2028 compound annual growth rate of 78.4 per cent.
“The rapid incorporation of GenAI in smartphones is unprecedented in mobile history with market penetration expected to exceed 60 per cent within the first three years,” said Nabila Popal, senior research director with IDC’s Worldwide Tracker Team.
For now, most of the phones which have deployed GenAI include flagship top-end devices. The main inflexion point for the growth of shipments will be when more accessibly priced mid-range phones begin to leverage GenAI capabilities.
“The most significant impact of this evolution is anticipated in 2026, when mid-range devices are expected to adopt this technology, making a momentous leap towards the democratisation of GenAI. While it is still too early to know all the use cases that will emerge in the coming years, one thing is for sure, GenAI will completely transform the way we interact with our smartphones,” said Popal.
Another analyst, Anthony Scarsella, research director, Mobile Phones at IDC, agreed that once the price point of GenAI phones decrease, their adoption will rise. “The cost will remain a critical inhibitor initially as many of the capable chipsets don’t come cheap and are available primarily in the ultra-premium segment of the market. However, over time, we believe these components will enter the mid-market and more affordable models as competition grows among device manufacturers and AI applications,” said Scarsella.
In June, Apple announced a partnership with OpenAI to integrate ChatGPT into its devices. Apple Intelligence is expected to be introduced into devices later this year.
Samsung already has Galaxy AI with a number of features available in its new range of foldables, the Galaxy ZFlip6 and Fold6, as well as its flagship S24 series. Recently, it acquired Oxford Semantic Technologies, a UK-based startup which is believed to be able to help the South Korean company develop the AI capabilities for its devices in-house rather than relying on external entities.
