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The release of Windows 10 will not be enough to halt the decline of the global PC market, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC).The IDC expects global PC shipments to fall 8.7 per cent in 2015, with growth declining through 2016 and shipments not stabilising until 2017, which will make five years of declining shipments.
The IDC had expected the 2015 second quarter to be a transition period, with vendors preparing for Windows 10 in the second half of the year, however “a stubbornly large inventory of notebooks from prior quarters and severe constraints posed by the decline of major currencies relative to the US dollar” proved a stumbling block.
Free upgrades of Windows 10 along with a relative dearth of newer models in the short term, combined with channels reluctant to take stock, also makes the prospect of growth unlikely through 2016, according to the IDC.
Interestingly, the IDC has found that blame can no longer be attributed to mobile devices as the sole culprit of the PC market decline.
While smartphones are still growing, the combined volume of PCs, tablets, and smartphones is expected to grow only in the single digits from 2015 through 2019, with saturation and “good enough computing” sentiments spreading even into tablets, which are expected to see further volume decline in 2015.
The IDC, however, remains optimistic of a “modest recovery” in 2017, stating the prospect of the next refresh cycle and the cessation of the free upgrade to Windows 10 should provide opportunities in the notebook and commercial segments, with purchases also expected to regain some interest in emerging regions.
“Although the shortcomings of the PC business are obvious, a silver lining is that the industry has continued to refine the more mobile aspects of personal computers – contributing to higher growth in convertible and ultra-slim notebooks,” Jay Chou, IDC Worldwide PC Tracker senior research analyst, commented.
“The de-emphasis of touch on Windows 10 also paves the way for a more familiar experience and continuing unit growth on large-screen systems, particularly all-in-one PCs.”
