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The Australian mobile services market will grow from around 29 million subscriptions this year to more than 35 million by June 2015, according to new research from Telsyte.
A rise in bring-your-own-devices (BYOD) plans, along with SIMs covering multiple consumer devices and some 3 million machine-to-machine (M2M) mobile subscriptions will take Australia’s mobile services skyward, the market research firm forecasts.
Australia already has one of the highest population-penetration rates of mobile handsets in the world and the total services in operation (SIOs) will grow from a population-penetration of 127 per cent in 2011 to almost 150 per cent in 2015 according to Telsyte’s Australian Mobile Services Market Study 2011-2015.
“While we estimate that mobile SIOs will increase by more than 7 million during the forecast period, growth will mainly come from the M2M segment which typically has a lower average revenue per user (ARPU), resulting in a less than disproportionate increase in mobile services revenue,” said Telsyte analyst Alvin Lee.
Telsyte views two distinct trends driving the market. One is the demand for BYO smartphones on month-by-month, post-paid plans, tipped to gradually increase over the next two years, which will benefit MVNOs catering for the BYOD device segment of the market.
The counter trend is an increase in purchases direct from carriers for leading smartphones from vendors like Apple, HTC and Samsung, where users are looking for a subsidised device.
Telsyte believes growth of the MVNO sector will continue to impact carriers’ networks. “MVNOs create additional revenue for carriers; however it comes at a hidden cost as it often requires an increase in capex,” Lee said.
